国際エネルギー機関 International Energy Agencyは、11月9日にWorld Energy Outlook 2011を公開しました。内容は、プレスリリースでエネルギー消費の増加傾向と脱化石燃料への各国の取り組みの遅れを指摘、対策を怠れば、将来の対策に必要なコストは増大してしまう。そしてなによりも、今後のエネルギー価格の高騰が安全保障を脅かし、気候変動の影響も懸念されることを警告するものになっているということです。象徴的な表現は、「まだ行動のための時間はあるが、それに必要な機会は閉ざされようとしている、、、、」
"..... there is still time to act, but the window of opportunity is closing."
World Energy Outlook 2011が示す、シナリオ（WEO's central New Policies Scenario）によれば、2035年までに一次エネルギーは、2010年時点より3分の1増加し、増分の90%は非OECD加盟国によるもので、その中心は中国になるだろうと分析している。
さらに、福島第一原子力発電所の事故にも触れ、原子力発電の役割に大きな疑念をもたらすことになったこの事故が、
原子力発電は現状に比べて70%以上増加すると分析してきたこのシナリオに影響を与え、各国のエネルギー政策が脱原子力に向った場合、再生可能エネルギーへの追い風とはなるが、結局エネルギー価格の高騰や気候変動対策への悪い影響を懸念する内容となっている。
この分析は、福島の過酷事故が未だ終息する見込みさえたっていないこの段階で、その被害と原子力政策に与える影響を過小評価していると感じるものになっている。そもそも、原子力の役割が増加するとし続けているシナリオを掲示したこと自体、拙速な感じがします。
そのシナリオでは、2035年の化石燃料への依存は81%から78%へ低下し、再生可能エネルギーは補助金により、13%から18%へと若干増加するとしていること自体、世界が直面しているエネルギーの危機に対応できていない印象をもちました。
プレスリリース / International Energy Agency,09 November 2011
・The world is locking itself into an unsustainable energy future which would have far-reaching consequences, IEA warns in its latest World Energy Outlook
" Without a bold change of policy direction, the world will lock itself into an insecure, inefficient and high-carbon energy system, the International Energy Agency warned as it launched the 2011 edition of the World Energy Outlook (WEO). The agency's flagship publication, released today in London, said there is still time to act, but the window of opportunity is closing.
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In the WEO's central New Policies Scenario, which assumes that recent government commitments are implemented in a cautious manner, primary energy demand increases by one-third between 2010 and 2035, with 90% of the growth in non-OECD economies. China consolidates its position as the world’s largest energy consumer: it consumes nearly 70% more energy than the United States by 2035, even though, by then, per capita demand in China is still less than half the level in the United States. The share of fossil fuels in global primary energy consumption falls from around 81% today to 75% in 2035. Renewables increase from 13% of the mix today to 18% in 2035; the growth in renewables is underpinned by subsidies that rise from $64 billion in 2010 to $250 billion in 2035, support that in some cases cannot be taken for granted in this age of fiscal austerity. By contrast, subsidies for f
Short-term pressossil fuels amounted to $409 billion in 2010.
ures on oil markets are easing with the economic slowdown and the expected return of Libyan supply. But the average oil price remains high, approaching $120/barrel (in year-2010 dollars) in 2035. Reliance grows on a small number of producers: the increase in output from Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is over 90% of the required growth in world oil output to 2035. If, between 2011 and 2015, investment in the MENA region runs one-third lower than the $100 billion per year required, consumers could face a near-term rise in the oil price to $150/barrel.
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Fukushima Daiichi has raised questions about the future role of nuclear power. In the New Policies Scenario, nuclear output rises by over 70% by 2035, only slightly less than projected last year, as most countries with nuclear programmes have reaffirmed their commitment to them. But given the increased uncertainty, that could change. A special Low Nuclear Case examines what would happen if the anticipated contribution of nuclear to future energy supply were to be halved. While providing a boost to renewables, such a slowdown would increase import bills, heighten energy security concerns and make it harder and more expensive to combat climate change.
The future for natural gas is more certain: its share in the energy mix rises and gas use almost catches up with coal consumption, underscoring key findings from a recent WEO Special Report which examined whether the world is entering a "Golden Age of Gas". One country set to benefit from increased demand for gas is Russia, which is the subject of a special in-depth study in WEO-2011. Key challenges for Russia are to finance a new generation of higher-cost oil and gas fields and to improve its energy efficiency. While Russia remains an important supplier to its traditional markets in Europe, a shift in its fossil fuel exports towards China and the Asia-Pacific gathers momentum. If Russia improved its energy efficiency to the levels of comparable OECD countries, it could reduce its primary energy use by almost one-third, an amount similar to the consumption of the United Kingdom. Potential savings of natural gas alone, at 180 bcm, are close to Russia's net exports in 2010.
In the New Policies Scenario, cumulative CO2 emissions over the next 25 years amount to three-quarters of the total from the past 110 years, leading to a long-term average temperature rise of 3.5°C. China's per-capita emissions match the OECD average in 2035. Were the new policies not implemented, we are on an even more dangerous track, to an increase of 6°C.
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関連
・World Energy Outlook 2011 - JUST RELEASED-----9 NOVEMBER 2011-----World Energy Outlook 2011, 660 pages, ISBN 978-92-64-12413-4, paper -150, PDF -120 (2011)
-----image : 上記サイトより
追加情報
・IEA report highlights “end of cheap oil”, says Global Renewable Fuels Alliance-----Renewalble Energy Magazine,10 November 2011
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