気候変動への取り組みは、適切なタイミングと対策をとるならば、思ったほどの負担ではない: 自然エネルギー

2008/12/30

気候変動への取り組みは、適切なタイミングと対策をとるならば、思ったほどの負担ではない

クリッピング / Reuters,Dec 22, 2008
・Tough climate goals may be easier than feared

" Tough targets for avoiding dangerous global warming may be easier to achieve than widely believed, according to a study that could ease fears of a prohibitive long-term surge in costs.
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関連情報、記事
・Near-linear cost increase to reduce climate-change risk-----the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Science（PNAS),November 12, 2008

" Edited by Stephen H. Schneider, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, and approved November 12, 2008 (received for review March 13, 2008)

Abstract
One approach in climate-change policy is to set normative long-term targets first and then infer the implied emissions pathways. An important example of a normative target is to limit the global-mean temperature change to a certain maximum. In general, reported cost estimates for limiting global warming often rise rapidly, even exponentially, as the scale of emission reductions from a reference level increases. This rapid rise may suggest that more ambitious policies may be prohibitively expensive. Here, we propose a probabilistic perspective, focused on the relationship between mitigation costs and the likelihood of achieving a climate target. We investigate the qualitative, functional relationship between the likelihood of achieving a normative target and the costs of climate-change mitigation. In contrast to the example of exponentially rising costs for lowering concentration levels, we show that the mitigation costs rise proportionally to the likelihood of meeting a temperature target, across a range of concentration levels. In economic terms investing in climate mitigation to increase the probability of achieving climate targets yields “constant returns to scale,” because of a counterbalancing rapid rise in the probabilities of meeting a temperature target as concentration is lowered. "

・Climate Change May Be Cheaper To Avert Than We Thought-----Apollo Daily Digest,December 29, 2008

・『ポスト京都』合意主導なるか　試される日本の外交-----東京新聞、2008年12月30日

You Control Climate Change

(eutube,2007年06月12日)