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Highlights
BP’s ‘base case’ projections are that world primary energy demand growth averages 1.7% per year from 2010 to 2030 although growth decelerates slightly beyond 2020. Non-OECD energy consumption will be 68% higher by 2030 averaging 2.6% per year growth, and accounts for 93% of global energy growth. In contrast, OECD growth averages 0.3% per year to 2030; and from 2020 OECD energy consumption per capita is on a declining trend of -0.2% per year.
Transport growth is seen to slow because of a decline in the OECD. The region’s total demand for oil and other liquids peaked in 2005 and will be back at roughly the level of 1990 by 2030. Toward the end of the period, coal demand in China will no longer be rising and China is projected to become the world’s largest oil consumer.
OPEC’s share of global oil production is set to increase to 46%, a position not seen since 1977. At the same time, oil - and gas - import dependency in the US is likely to fall to levels not seen since the 1990s, because of improved fuel efficiency and the increased share of biofuels. Global consumption growth is also impacted by higher oil prices in recent years and a gradual reduction of subsidies in oil-importing countries.
The fuel mix changes over time, reflecting long asset lifetimes. Oil, excluding bio-fuels, will grow relatively slowly at 0.6% per year; natural gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel with more than three times the projected growth rate of oil at 2.1% per year. Coal will increase by 1.2% per year and by 2030 it is likely to provide virtually as much energy as oil excluding biofuels. The strong carbon policy drive in OECD countries risks being more than offset by growth in emerging economies.
Wind, solar, bio-fuels and other renewables continue to grow strongly, increasing their share in primary energy from less than 2% now to more than 6% projected by 2030. Biofuels will provide 9% of transport fuels and nuclear and hydropower will grow steadily and gain market share in total energy consumption.
“The slowing of growth in total energy in transport is related to higher oil prices and improving fuel economy, vehicle saturation in mature economies, and expected increases in taxation and subsidy reduction in developing economies,” said Christof Rühl, BP's chief economist. “In percentage terms, oil demand is reduced the most in the power sector (-30%) because this is the easiest oil to displace with gas or renewables and is the sector most likely to employ carbon pricing.”
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"Related downloads
Providing analysis of long term energy trends
Energy Outlook 2030 booklet (pdf, 1463KB)
Energy Outlook 2030 summary tables (xlsx, 48KB)
Presentation slides (pdf, 1090KB)
BP Energy Outlook 2030 insights
Global energy consumption in 2030 is 36% higher than 2011 with virtually all (93%) the growth in non-OECD countries
Brazil fact sheet (pdf, 83KB)
China fact sheet (pdf, 81KB)
Energy Outlook 2030 fact sheet (pdf, 91KB)
Europe fact sheet (pdf, 80KB)
India fact sheet (pdf, 83KB)
Middle East fact sheet (pdf, 80KB)
Russia fact sheet (pdf, 85KB)
US fact sheet (pdf, 206KB)"
" *Top 10 PV Suppliers 2012 Merchante Modules Shipments in Megawatts(rounded to nearest 50MW) 米IHS社-2012年におけるメーカー別の太陽電池モジュール出荷量ランキング
1 Yingli Green Energy (2300MW)
2 First Solar (1800)
3 Trina Solar (1600)
4 Canadian Solar (1550)
5 Suntech (1500)
6 Sharp Solar (1050)
7 Jinko Solar (900)
8 SunPower (850)
9 REC Group (750)
10 Hanwha SolarOne (750) "
気候ネットワークは、ハインリッヒ・ベル財団と連携し、特設ページ「ドイツのエネルギーシフト～再生可能エネルギーの未来に関する議論～」を開設しました。
紹介されている資料は、「German Energy Transition」で直訳すると、ドイツのエネルギー転換です。今回、気候ネットワークはエネルギーシフトと訳しました。
日刊温暖化新聞に、ブルームバーグ・ニュー・エナジー・ファイナンスが太陽光発電がいよいよグリッドパリティに近づいていることを示すリポート「RESEARCH PAPER SHINES LIGHT ON COMPETITIVENESS OF SOLAR PV POWER」の紹介記事を5/30日に掲載しました。
" New working paper argues that common perceptions about the lack of competitiveness of solar photovoltaic power are misleading and out-of-date
London and New York, 16 May 2012. Power generated from solar photovoltaic (PV) panels is much closer to competitiveness with conventional electricity generation than many policy-makers and commentators have realised, according to a new working paper on the subject, released by research company Bloomberg New Energy Finance today.
The paper, Reconsidering the Economics of Photovoltaic Power, looks at the implications of the sharpest falls in the prices of PV technology in recent memory. Average PV module prices have fallen by nearly 75% in the past three years, to the point where solar power is now competitive with daytime retail power prices in a number of countries. It also examines the metrics generally used to measure the economics of solar power against alternative power generating technologies, and finds they are often inadequate, and may introduce bias against the deployment of PV technology.
The authors' aim is to inform policy-makers, utility decision-makers, investors and advisory services, in particular in high-growth developing countries, as they weigh the suite of power generation options available to them. The paper is being submitted for publication in the peer-reviewed literature.
Among the conclusions of the paper are:
• The shift in prices of solar technology carries major implications for policy and investment decision-makers, especially when it comes to the choice of generating technology and the design of tariff, fiscal and other support policies.
• Many observers and decision-makers have yet to catch up with the improvements in the economics of solar power that have resulted from recent PV technology cost and price reductions.
• Recent reductions in PV prices are likely to be sustainable. While overcapacity has caused severe pain for manufacturers, the price falls are primarily a reflection of reductions in manufacturing costs, not solely a reflection of stock liquidation and other short-run factors.
• Commonly used estimates for PV power's competitiveness - including the concept of "grid parity" - are often misleading, given the complex realities of the electricity system.
The paper was written by 10 authors with exceptional insight into the economics of solar power. They are Morgan Bazilian and Ijeoma Onyemi of the United Nations Industrial Development Organization; Michael Liebreich and Jenny Chase of Bloomberg New Energy Finance; Ian MacGill of the University of New South Wales; Jigar Shah of KMR Infrastructure; Dolf Gielen of the International Renewable Energy Agency, IITC; Doug Arent of the Joint Institute for Strategic Energy Analysis; Doug Landfear of AGL Energy; and Shi Zhengrong of Suntech Power Holdings.
The report can be found here: http://www.bnef.com/WhitePapers/download/82
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